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By Frank Ogden
Innovations Magazine

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Tomorrow's Health

During the period from 1989 to 1991 I conceived and wrote what I call Ogden's Laws of "Lessons from the Future", a collection of some 40 truths and maxims I believe describe influences upon life and work in the future. These laws are a work in progress and were created as much to provoke as to inform businesses, governments and individuals. Upon reflection, many of them take on a particular verity when read in the context of health care.

Law #12: The new 3 R's are RAM, ROM, & Run. The next lesson will be the three C's: Conflict, Crisis, and Change.

The system has never been in more chaos but this is a good thing since it's an indication of the level of conflict and crisis that exists, which is usually a good catalyst for change. With all interested groups - provinces, doctors, nurses, hospitals, patient -- at odds with each other and with the federal government over how things should be run, the only proper response can be change. Otherwise,

Law #37: Playing it safe is now the most dangerous game on the planet, comes into play and nowhere will the stakes be higher than in health care where lives are at stake.

Law #40: The future can be dangerous to your wealth. Great mountains of cash are no longer a protective shield against change.

The need to innovate has never been stronger. For example, in the pharmaceutical sector, success will go to those whose ingenuity in developing medicinal treatments is also flexible enough to account for the changing world in which those therapies are administered. A strong and continuous pipeline is more crucial to success than a cash cow.

Law #13: Deregulation will hit unions. When automatic check-off of dues by employers is eliminated, death will come on swift wings. In Canada the majority of new jobs are already coming from companies with fewer than five employees. This will not find favor with politicians, as such companies will not make large political donations to curry favor.

While this was written with the business sector in mind, one need only look at the doctors unions in this country to see how easy it could be for such a group to undermine the collective goal of better health care for citizens. Unless physician associations start to look beyond self-serving, pecuniary objectives in the collective bargaining process, their representative body will be censured for the anachronistic, counter-productive measure it is and forced to change. That said, remember, in the US, doctors can command almost the same fee as a Silicon Valley hacker, so be fair or the situation will get much worse.

Law #04. The ability of small groups to stop any activity greatly exceeds the power of large groups to get something moving.

Consumers and patients are becoming a stronger force and voice within the system thanks to the Internet and the determination to become fully involved in their own health care. Armed with information, they will challenge conventional practices and turn to alternative health care solutions, disempowering traditional decision-makers such as doctors and health bureaucrats. Governments that fail to recognize consumer' strength do so at their own peril.

Law #09. In times of panic, chaos or rapid change, the bizarre rapidly becomes acceptable.

Finally, we should not underestimate the ability of the unpredictable to jolt one out of lethargy and into action. Throughout history, events such as unexpected deaths of public figures, assassinations, attacks have usually caught nations of the world by suprise, signaling the end of one era, reality or way of life and the beginnings of a new one. The current climate of health care crisis might well be the catalyst for such an event in Canada.

All forty of Vancouver-based futurist Frank Ogden's "Lessons From The Future" can be found on his website, www.drtomorrow.com

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