"It's not the strongest of the species that survives, or the most intelligent. It is the one most adaptable to change." When Charles Darwin published those words in his 1859 book, On the Origin of Species, he turned contemporary beliefs and values upside down. His theory forced people to think about their world in a different light for the first time, challenging them to accept the idea that humans must adapt to a changing environment to survive.      The controversy that began over 100 years ago continues to this day. A modem day "Darwin" has taken up where the original left off, utilizing Darwin's premise in a new way. This modem day visionary is Frank Ogden— also known as Dr. Tomorrow to those who follow him on the internet or through his many hooks—a Canadian futurist whose research into the world's social, business, and technological trends forms the basis for some pretty far-reaching ideas.      Ogden will be a guest speaker at the upcoming 18th Annual APA Congress in Orlando, Florida, May 16-20, 2000, He will twice present a workshop entitled "Global Mind Change: Performance and Accountability," sponsored by ProBusiness Services, Inc. Ogden will discuss the changes to which business people must adapt in order to successfully compete in the growing global market His outrageous comments and opinionated predictions are sure to be an audience favorite.

 
Dr. Tomorrow's Philosophy

     A long-time student of globalization, Ogden says that every component of the world market, including the pay-roll industry, will see drastic changes in the coming century. Individuals who adapt to the changes will succeed and reap the rewards; those who do not adapt will cease to have a job. In other words, sink or swim. There are no other options.

     "It's a hard pill to swallow," says Ogden of the notion that some individuals will fall through the cracks as organizations revamp to meet the demands of a new age. The signs arc already here, he says, and we must heed them before it's too late. Corporate mergers are one example of the changes the business world is experiencing. Mergers are occurring at break-neck speed today; employees whose skills are marketable will remain in the new corporate structure. Those with obsolete skills "will go down the tubes" he believes. So how do we prepare lor these changes?

     "That's easy. We need to forget everything we've been taught," Ogden explains. "Be open to anything. Question our conventions and institutions, and ditch the conventional way of thinking." When asked about the reception he gets when this philosophy is sprung on an unsuspecting audience, he chuckles, saying, "I've had people walk out of my speeches, throw chairs at me, and throw up!"

     Ogden sees globalization being fostered by the technology explosion of recent years. The Internet has had a profound impact on the way we live and work. "Kids today know more than their parents did at that age," said Ogden. "They go home and turn on the computer, jump into a chat room with somebody on the other side of the world and they're learning more in that conversation than they could've learned in the classroom.

     "Kids should be the teachers and the teachers ought to be in summer school'" When asked about his most skeptical audience, he doesn't hesitate with an answer. "Teachers," he says flatly, "are the most resistant to change. I have a saying about classrooms. They've got square walls and they make square minds." He believes that traditional book-based teaching is unsuitable for the future because the information is already obsolete by the time it is published in textbooks. "And kids know it!" he says. "That's why they're so bored. These kids cannot be activated with dull, dry, static print when they've been raised on the colorful dynamic visuals and fast cuts of MTV. The Internet is changing the world, and it will destroy education as we know it."

     His ideas have applications everywhere. Like other disciplines, change is inevitable in payroll as well. Ogden thinks the payroll industry will become much bigger in coming years. He sees an expanded role for outsourcing and a shrinking in-house presence. "Companies will only be able to afford to keep the highly paid staff," he says, meaning that the top producers will stay on at higher salaries, while their less productive counterparts fall by the wayside. Ogden sees a bright future for payroll if those in the profession begin adapting to new ideas and processes now, before it becomes an issue of trying to catch up to a world that has passed them by.
 

Who is  Dr. Tomorrow?  You may be wondering how Frank Ogden got where he is today, and how he arrived at his ideas about the future. Ogden is something of an expert on the subject of change. His life is like a billboard advertisement for it. Over the years he has been a mop salesman, factory manager, insurance agent, radio station manager, and he's assisted with research into psychedelic drugs, to name a few of his many previous occupations.

     His achievements are impressive at first glance, but downright remarkable in view of the fact that Ogden has little post-secondary education. He attended the University of Manitoba briefly, dropping out after only two years. That lack of an academic background has not hurt him at all. "It was the President of IBM who said that my lack of academic qualifications was my biggest asset," says Ogden about the company that has hired him for six speaking engagements. He became interested in future studies in the early 1980s and has immersed himself in the field ever since. Technology is his passion these days, and he spends much of his time researching technological trends. One field where Ogden is light years ahead of most people is in Webcasting, a relatively new technology for broadcasting audio and video over the Internet. (See. the accompanying sidebar for details on APA's upcoming Webcasting program).

     When he isn't conducting research or traveling for pleasure, Ogden attends speaking engagements. He presents from 40-70 speeches per year extolling the virtues of free thinking and cutting-edge concepts. Although he recently turned 80 years old, he doesn't, sound like an octogenarian. His rapid-fire speech and ability to effortlessly explain abstract ideas is a sign that he's sharper than most people half his age-Frank Ogden's appearance at the 18th Annual Congress in May should be a motivating and enlightening, not to mention entertaining, experience for those who attend his workshops. His message about the future is bold but practical, and should serve as a warning against job complacency.

Once you grasp Dr. Tomorrow's philosophy, you will be poised for success in the next century.

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SIDEBAR 

Webcasting: Reaching Out and Touching the Future Taking a cue from Frank Ogden's success with Webcasting— broadcasting audio and video streams over the Internet—the American Payroll Association is planning to roll out a Webcasting program of its own this year. Responding to the rapid growth of the Internet, APA recognized the benefits of reaching its members and the public through this exploding new medium. Unlike television, which is losing viewers, Webcast viewing is increasing as the Internet evolves.

To get a perspective on implementing a Webcasting system, APA Executive Director Dan Maddux and staff members Tammy Trascher and Steve Fine recently visited Frank Ogden in Vancouver, BC to view his broadcasting facilities.. Ogden's broadcasting experience and state-of-the-art equipment provided APA with information needed to begin developing a system of its own. Webcasting Benefits Everyone Webcasting has the potential to reach a much broader audience than other communication media. With that in mind, APA expects to broadcast two types of Web programming: one for teenagers and the other for APA members and the general public. Educational programming will be produced for teenagers, specifically those on the verge of entering the workforce. Shows will focus on topics of interest to this age group, such as personal savings, your paycheck, work ethics, and how the government works. Programs aimed at a teen audience will be broadcast after school hours. APA members and the general public will have the opportunity to view a variety of programming with topics ranging from interviews of APA staff and government officials to coverage of Congress and National Payroll Week. These programs will help to create an awareness of APA among the general public while reinforcing to members the organization's educational mission. Webcasting will put APA on the cutting edge of communications technology. By staying ahead of the curve, APA can best serve its members and meet its goal of strengthening the payroll profession. Watch for more information on this exciting now technology!