The Work Force in Transition

                         Where Have the Jobs Gone?


       Not so many years ago, no passenger elevator moved without an operator.
     Utility services needed sweating men to dig ditches for phone, water, and
     sewer lines. And what about gas station attendants, streetcar conductors,
     typewriter repairers, stenographers, train firemen, printbox typesetters,
     linotype operators, and hydro meter readers? Most are going, or have
     gone, to that big unemployment center in the sky.

       What has replaced them? Computers, automated teller machines, fax
     machines, and other machines. Even machines are being replaced -- by
     machines that do multiple jobs, such as the E-mail modem/fax/answering
     machine that does three jobs in one, at half the price of last year's
     single-unit fax machine. If your job can be replaced by a machine, even
     one not yet invented, start retraining now. Global competition dictates
     it. If your company cannot match the productivity of overseas robots on
     the dull, monotonous, repetitive jobs that still exist, be assured some
     foreign operation has already got that market targeted.

       If your work is tied to what used to be called a "natural resource,"
     don't expect to be working at your present job until you retire. Your job
     or even the industry itself won't be around. While Viceroy of India, Lord
     Mountbatten presided over the end of the British Empire. Today union
     leaders in the forest industry are in a similar position -- the army of
     lumberjacks is shrinking rapidly. Even the word is now outdated. No
     amount of promotional "creativity" can make these jobs come back again.

       Plastic is replacing steel. Ceramics, vinyl, and new materials are
     replacing wood, steel, and other building materials. Molecular engineers
     are developing materials that never existed before, materials that will
     be "assembled" molecule by molecule, with a strength that will make steel
     look weak. New materials can now be created, much like nylon replacing
     silk in stockings, from atmospheric materials at a much lower cost than
     the natural way of the past.

       Postal delivery, which once dominated the day's office work, is fast
     being replaced by E-mail, faxes, and telephones. The answering machine is
     replacing the receptionist, the automated bank machine is replacing human
     bank tellers, and voice navigators are replacing secretaries. No job is
     sacred. Even the Vatican now broadcasts messages via satellite. It is
     hard to believe, but jobs are following the same path as slavery, child
     labor, and indentured service as a way of using human energy to provide a
     service, enhance a culture, or provide an income for the population.

       For years now the official (and memorable) logo of the Japanese
     Industrial Robot Society has been an image of a stainless-steel-gloved
     robot hand releasing humans from their position as a lowly caterpillar
     into a creative and beautiful butterfly. That indelible image may mean
     more than initially intended.

       Almost everybody today, with the possible exception of some government
     and union leaders, is aware that our old skills cannot command the
     respect and pay levels they did in the past. They just are not salable
     anymore. No matter what training we take, our skills will only be viable
     for a short period and then we will have to retrain for something else,
     quite likely something radically different. Although I am a futurist
     today, if I don't continue to change, by tomorrow I will be a historian.

       Flexibility is the key to tomorrow. Constant retraining will be
     essential. Tomorrow will be the age of task forces, a time when groups
     will gather to work on projects and then disband. Such groups already
     work around the world on major construction projects, putting out oil
     fires in Kuwait, setting up Expo sites, or creating movies.

       Since the fall of the Hollywood studio, new, more adaptive producers
     have bypassed the old way and now assemble the talent and the
     organization to make one movie. After it is over, whether it be a hit or
     a bust, everyone scatters. The next movie may or may not have some of the
     players that produced the last epic. The latest buzzword for this type of
     instant "rise and fall" organization is "virtual corporation."

       The rush from the past to the future is constantly shortening the time
     before anything current becomes a historical artifact. The average shelf
     life of any consumer electronic product in Tokyo is now a mere ninety
     days. What used to take five years now occurs in one.

       Every technological invention, along with the innovative ways in which
     it is used, changes the world around it -- not only technologically, but
     also socially, economically, and personally. Many people trying to
     survive on unemployment insurance, workers' compensation, and welfare are
     on a downhill slide -- into the land of the techno-peasant. Once there,
     they become outcasts because they are resisting tomorrow, grounded in the
     past. The devastating net result will be reminiscent of the turn of the
     century for people who did not learn to read and write.

       Yet with all the unemployment in the fading industries of yesteryear,
     there is still action in the growth fields of tomorrow. Most of this new
     energy starts on a small scale. Often a few coworkers, partners, or
     shareholders produce remarkable sales volumes. Many small companies with
     a staff of only ten are knocking out $5 million worth of product a year.
     That's $500,000 per employee or partner. With that output, the company
     can afford to pay up to $100,000 a year to productive knowledge workers.
     And these people are developing the personal confidence to go almost
     anywhere on the planet and earn a comparable income. They are highly
     mobile, flexible beyond belief, and not bound by nationalism -- they are
     truly planetary citizens. Every country needs them and the virtual
     corporations they create, and smart countries are out prospecting for
     them.

       You may think it is impossible to have a company where the average
     employee can produce $500,000 a year. Well, it's almost being done today
     at Apple Computers. Revenue per employee is $437,100. That's twice what
     IBM is accomplishing and four times what competitor Digital Equipment
     Corp. has been able to produce. If Toyota can handle the planet with
     fewer than a hundred thousand workers, why does General Motors need more
     than that to handle just the United States?

       Look at the government financial aid supplied every year to developing
     countries (or to Indian reservations). It is like providing fish instead
     of fishhooks, and enslaves the recipient in servitude forever -- or until
     the rules are changed. More sophisticated givers provide the fishhooks,
     encouraging independence and a continuing supply of fish.

       Once you learn how to swim, the acquired skills work in rivers, lakes,
     pools, quarries, and oceans. Those who can't swim quickly encounter
     aquatic hazards. The same applies to salable personal skills for
     tomorrow. The difference between the "knows" and the "know-nots" is not a
     matter of race, color, formal education, or even economics. It is
     attitude. Information can lead to knowledge. Knowledge can lead to
     wisdom. And wisdom can lead to power. Information is easier to access now
     than at any time in human history. But without the right attitude and the
     energy to go out and explore, present-day prospectors will be like those
     who sat at home and missed the adventure, the danger, and the glory of
     the Gold Rush.