The Everyday World
The Shape of Things to Come
"Ceramic-home living certainly makes life a lot easier than when your
dad and I moved into our first home," said Ms. Nanton to her daughter.
"Who would have thought that a house could be smarter and have a better
memory than your father!"
Farfetched? Such comments may not be unusual as we enter the third
millennium. Homes guaranteed for more than twenty years, with no fire
insurance (because they are made of silicon and limestone) and carrying a
lower mortgage rate (because the financial lending institution can't
lose) will be common. These homes will automatically equalize humidity
levels with the outside air when you take a shower. They will turn up the
heat an hour before a cold wave hits your district. Such homes will still
have the refrigerator in the kitchen but the motor for that fridge (and
that irritating buzzing sound) will be in the garage, where the heat it
produces will keep your car from freezing.
Of course the house will adjust each room as you enter for your thermal
comfort level. Personal identity sensors will adjust to you, your
partner, or the kids, depending on who is in the room. If everyone
appears simultaneously, it will average or follow any specific
pre-programmed command for such occasions. And the house automatically
turns on your personal computer/robot education/information/
entertainment holographic image projector in what will quickly grow to be
the favorite room in the house. This is the residence of the knowledge
navigator, your at-home-learning computer directed by an Apple-developed
system that "understands" how you think.
A project known as America, Part II will have a dramatic effect on our
way of life and the way we perceive learning. The philosophy behind it
says: if we can throw a switch for electricity and turn a tap for water,
why can't we just hit a button for knowledge? A substantial portion of
time previously spent watching TV entertainment will be converted into a
learning process by building a high "interest factor" into shows, as is
done now for commercials, sitcoms, and the evening news. Learning will
become increasingly visual as it becomes obvious that static book
knowledge cannot compete with dynamic visual information. Many people
will have difficulty accepting this change: old habits are not
automatically eradicated when the rules of life change suddenly.
New forms of visual entertainment on a grand scale will appear. Large
enclosed stadiums and convention centers will offer high-definition
images on huge flat/curved screens, giving the impression that viewers
are physically involved in the performance. (The beginnings of such
developments are already evident in places like the SkyDome in Toronto,
with its Jumbotron scoreboard.) Massive productions will be created at
unbelievable cost for the one live production, recorded holographically.
Such shows will be relayed via satellite, or more likely fiber-optic
cables, to world centers for presentation in large arenas to huge
audiences willing to pay $100 or more per viewing. "Nostalgia" theaters
will continue to be supported by the older, more conventional segment of
society, just as they are today. They will be accepted as the visual
museums of yesterday.
Obviously, those who live in smart houses won't put up with dumb cars.
Many homes will have built-in natural gas and electric recharging units
for "smart cars." Before the end of the twentieth century most cars will
have microwave ovens next to the glove compartment. New "Heat & Eat"
packaged foods will be sold at natural gas/electric recharging service
stations. Most will carry the Campbell's Soup label as Campbell's
research, under way since 1988, will give the company an "out front"
image. Such cars will also contain sensors that keep us just twenty-five
feet behind the car ahead. From other sensors farther along on the
highway, the car will "know" of obstacles or slowing traffic that will
require gradual braking. Such sensors will standardize traffic flow,
permitting a 50 percent increase in the number of cars on the road with
fewer traffic jams than today. Dashboard-projected video (DPV) will allow
the driver to read all speed and other instruments without taking his or
her eyes off the road.
Permanently installed low-cost phones will serve as a back-up to your
personal, wrist-implanted phone. This will be the fourth generation of
the compact cordless phone introduced in Britain in 1989. Even then it
weighed only four ounces. It fits into your shirt or blouse pocket and
costs only one-tenth the price of a cellular phone with just one-quarter
the operating costs. Motorola is now manufacturing its Silverlink 2000
phone at the rate of 5,000 a week in Malaysia and selling it at the rate
of 1,000 a week in Hong Kong and Singapore alone. Computer, fax, and
satellite-delivered navigation signals will all be standard in any car
built after 2001.
It is possible that future cars will run on air. One U.S. institute,
Solar Energy Research of Golden, Colorado, is working on a process to
convert atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) into methanol for use in cars.
Other companies, like Delco Electronics, are working on "self-driving
cars" that would incorporate such features as obstacle detection,
collision-avoidance, and radar-controlled steering.
Clothing will become even more diversified than during the 1980s and
1990s. Dress fabric interwoven with fiber-optic cables will light up or
glow. A person's phone number might be included in a fabric's weft and
warp so that it could be flashed to a desired partner yet remain barely
visible to others in a crowd. Fabric that would appear loose and
free-flowing could become tight and clinging upon command. This will be
accomplished through a technique known as molecular shrinking in which an
electrical current minimizes the area between molecules. The procedure is
already used in some forms of metallic adjustable springs. Clothing
designers will incorporate this and other advanced technologies into
previously static fabric.
Life in the "crystal lane" (it will make the Industrial Age "fast lane"
look like geriatric alley) will result in a rapid growth in monastic
orders, based on the same tenets that caused them to dominate so much of
Europe during the Middle Ages. Some people, feeling that the new age has
too much change for them, will seek sanctuary from change in such temples
of tranquillity. As in the Middle Ages, more men than women will follow
that path. Women are more adaptable than men, and this will show up in
their increased influence and affluence.
Research indicates that a sizable percentage of the population finds
that receptivity to new types of foods and cooking processes increases
adaptability to change. The world interchange of various ethnic groups,
new cooking methods, and amazing new "crops" produced by biotechnology
will accelerate this change. A food "explosion" during the late 1990s
will appear even more astounding than the consumer electronics explosion
of the 1980s. Most of these foods, as yet unknown because they haven't
been invented (just as jet planes, television, computers, and satellites
were not invented or even dreamed of in the early days of the Industrial
Revolution), will be created by the new science of biotechnology. No
doubt, some country will come out with "new people" as well.
This science will be so controversial during the years ahead that it
will put the abortion issue on the rear burner. In 1989 the U.S.
government approved genetic manipulation research on humans. Both the
approval and the potential restrictions on it will have vast consequences
for those countries that approve or disapprove of such practices.
Biotechnology will basically mean the redesigning of the human body.
Already, perhaps irretrievable steps have been taken that will result in
our designing our own successors. Those who fight the process stand to
lose incredible benefits. Those who support the process could unleash
potentially hideous results. It will be the test of human intelligence to
find a middle path.
By the year 2010 the planet will be "alive." The billions of human
brain cells in each of us, connected via computer and fiber-optic cable,
will be exchanging information at femtosecond speeds around the globe and
at relatively inexpensive rates. This will accentuate the feeling of
interconnectedness among all planetary dwellers. Some people, through
such close electronic contact, will develop a sense of intimacy that
could equate to a form of mental telepathy. Some younger children already
report such feelings.
Photonics, the new science of acquiring, storing, and disseminating all
types of media via light instead of electricity, will find a wide range
of applications. It will make past advances, such as those in
transportation, where we moved from covered wagons to jet planes, seem
leisurely.
You can dread the future, or relish its challenges. The Chinese
character for "chaos" also reads as "opportunity." The Chinese saying on
luck and disaster presents another double meaning useful in describing
the future: We live in interesting times.