A STOCK EXCHANGE IN CHINA? 

(Editor's note: In the beginning computers could only communicate in capital letters. This is one of 20 columns from Dr. Tomorrow's original series, included here to indicate change as well as describe it. Those columns also hold another story, that change is swift and offers both disaster and opportunity.)

IF YOU THINK CHINA IS GOING TO MAKE BIG CHANGES IN HONG KONG AFTER 1997, JUST WAIT 'TILL YOU SEE WHAT HONG KONG DOES TO CHINA BEFORE THAT DATE ARRIVES!

YOU CAN EXPECT A STOCK EXCHANGE IN CHINA, QUITE LIKELY IN SHANGHAI OR BEIJING, WITHIN TWO YEARS. IT COULD HAPPEN QUICKER.

HONG KONG'S FIVE AND A HALF MILLION PEOPLE ARE HAVING MORE OF AN EFFECT ON CHINA THAN CHINA IS ON HONG KONG. WHY? BECAUSE THE RULERS AT THE TOP OF THE ONE BILLION PILE OF CHINESE HAVE SEEN THAT HONG KONG CAPITALISM (THEIR'S WILL BE CULTURALLY MODIFIED) HAS ITS BENEFITS -ESPECIALLY TO THOSE AT THE TOP. WHEN YOU LOOK FROM CHINA, ACROSS THE YELLOW SEA, TO WHERE THE LAND VALUES WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE EMPEROR'S PALACE IN TOKYO IS WORTH MORE THAN ALL THE REAL ESTATE IN THE UNITED STATES, YOU HAVE TO BE MORE THAN BLIND TO NOT SEE HOW YOU WOULD BENEFIT IF ONE BILLION OF YOUR PEOPLE GET THE CAPITALISTIC ECONOMIC TURN ON!

ALREADY THE LIBERALISATION IN CHINA, WHICH NOW ALLOWS MEMBERS OF A FAMILY TO OWN A SLICE OF THE ACTION IN A SMALL BUSINESS, IS LEADING THE WAY. THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT, NOT EXACTLY NOTED FOR RAPID MOVEMENT HAS JUST NOW APPROVED AN EXPERIMENT IN SETTING UP FUTURES MARKETS FOR FARM PRODUCTS. THEY HAVE SEEN HOW THIS CAN STABALIZE FOOD PRODUCTION. CHINA HAS HAD, IN THE PAST, WIDE FLUCTUATIONS IN FARM PRODUCTION DUE TO SOME GOVERNMENT POLICIES THAT SUPPORTED CERTAIN FOODS. THEY FOUND HOWEVER, THAT WHEN THEY CHANGED POLICIES, PRODUCTION DROPPED OFF AS FARMERS SWITCHED PRODUCTION TO THE LATEST GOVERNMENT-SUPPORTED PLAN FOR ANOTHER TYPE OF FOOD. RABBIT WOOL AND PORK ALONG WITH PEPPERMINT OIL AND COTTON HAVE BEEN SOME OF THE EFFECTED PRODUCTS.

I HAVE JUST (OCTOBER 1988) RETURNED FROM A TRIP TO MACAU, HONG KONG AND CHINA. MACAU REVERTS TO CHINA IN 1999 JUST TWO YEARS AFTER THE BRITISH LEASE ON HONG KONG EXPIRES. WHAT WILL HAPPEN? IT IS MY BELIEF THAT HONG KONG IS EFFECTING CHINA MORE THAN CHINA IS EFFECTING HONG KONG. ALREADY JUST ACROSS THE HONG KONG/CHINA BORDER NEW EXPANSION ZONES ARE SPROUTING UP WITH THE SAME KIND OF ENTREPRENUERIAL ZEAL THAT YOU FIND 24 HOURS A DAY IN HONG KONG. ALREADY BUSINESSMEN FROM HONG KONG HAVE CREATED WELL OVER ONE AND A HALF MILLION JOBS IN CHINA IN THESE NEW INDUSTRIES. THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT ISN'T GOING TO STOP THAT TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT NO MATTER WHAT IT DOES TO THEIR IDEALOGY. THAT DON'T CALL IT CAPITALISM, OF COURSE BUT THAT IS WHAT IT IS. AND, COMPARED TO THE DULL, BACKWARDNESS OF EVEN CITIES LIKE KWANGHOU (YOU CAN FIND FOUR DIFFERENT SPELLINGS) FORMERLY CANTON, YOU CAN SEE THE CHINESE HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO. BASICALLY, THEY HAVE NO MODERN INFRASTRUCTURE. A MINISCULE MIDDLE CLASS AND 800,000,000 FARMERS WITH LITTLE KNOWLEDGE OF THE TECHNOLOGICAL WORLD THAT IS ENGULFING WESTERN AND OTHER GLOBAL SOCIETIES. CHINESE GOVERNMENTS KNOW THEY CAN'T RETAIN POWER OPERATING WITH STONE TABLET EQUIPMENT.

THAT'S WHY A STOCK EXCHANGE WILL BE ESTABLISHED IN CHINA, IF FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN TO INVITE OUTSIDERS TO PROVIDE CAPITAL FOR INTERNAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN CHINA. IT IS AN AMAZING EXPERIENCE TO SEE THE VAST DIFFERENCE WITHIN A FEW MILES.

ON ONE HAND HONG KONG A BUSTLING MODERN CITY WORKING 24 HOURS A DAY PRODUCING MORE BILLIONAIRES AND MILLIONAIRES PER ACRE THAN ANY LAND ON EARTH. THEN JUST MILES AWAY ONE OF THE LARGEST CITIES IN CHINA, ALMOST EVERYONE RIDING ON THEIR THREE MILLION BICYCLES AND EARNING A PER CAPITIA INCOME OF UNDER US $1.00 PER DAY.

THIS GREAT A CONTRAST IS EVEN NOTICED BY THE BLIND.

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