Lessons From The Future

 

 

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Volume III
Lessons From The Future

COMMUNICATIONS CHANGES COMMAND 

In 1979, the late Shah of Iran, with vast wealth at his command, was trying to bring his people into the 20th century. He used all the modern military techniques and intelligence forces of the day, including his version of the CIA, to control Iranian citizens. Meanwhile, with no access to vast wealth, the late Ayotallah Homeni was obliged to use technologies that, although not the most up-to-date, enabled him to accomplish, almost in secret, what would have been detected in using more modern equipment. The Ayotallah sent out his message from his residence-in-exile in France, on cheap, easy to duplicate audio tapes. The tapes were smuggled into Iran, duplicated and circulated to the faithful who quickly spread the word. The Ayotallah sat back to await the expected explosion when his message built up to a "critical mass".

Meanwhile, the Iranian military, mesmerized by U.S. Influence and training in technology were concentrating on far more sophisticated methods to enhance the position of the Shah. Because simple audio tapes were not regarded as weapon in the struggle between the two opposing ideologies, the tapes were not even considered or noticed by the forces in power. We all know what happened. Inspired by the Ayotallah's tape recorded messages, a sizeable segment of the Iranian people rose in revolt, ousted the Shah, captured the U.S. Embassy and held Americans hostage for 58 days, causing President Carter to lose the election to Ronald Reagan. Moral: Don't be blinded by the latest if another technique may be more effective in the environment of the times. The reverse happened in the Gulf War. U.S. technology was able to see beneath the sand and immobilize tanks that in earlier times would have been secure.

What has this got to do with here today? On Canada's west coast the huge timber conglomerate of Macmillan Bloedel is suffering simultaneous death struggles with many forces: the economies of the industry, a world-wide recession, environmentalists, native land claims, and dozens of less volatile situations. In some ways running that company resembles flying a plane. With ample daylight, good weather, modern and well-equipped aircraft, sufficient fuel, no on-board malfunctions, with a competent and healthy crew, it is possible to handle almost any one major problem. That was the lumber company of yesterday. Almost anyone could run it. But when good weather fades, fuel runs low, on fuel, the plane deteriorates, loses an engine, or has instrument or power failure, or a crew illness develops due to ingested meals aloft, repercussions can be fatal.

This is happening to several major integrated lumber operations. Problems are occurring faster than they can be solved and delays are permitting the problems to erupt into large "forest fires".

For more than a century, Macmillan Bloedel built their empire. In times of rapid economic growth, with huge acreages of virgin, oldgrowth timber to cut, an almost free hand to do what they wanted with the forest and the surrounding environment, plus a labor force encouraged to work harder by continually improving salaries and conditions, far above other competing lumber markets and having world markets that purchased all 2 X 4's produced, allowed unrestricted growth. There were no environmentalists, no activists, no inspired government inspectors nor a judiciary that viewed things differently than the corporation president. In many cases, the "public" wasn't even allowed to look at the MacBlo property (mostly land leased from government) to see what they were doing. The salaries and perks of the president and other top executives weren't even permitted to be made public under Canadian law. If it was good for MacBlo it was good for Canada. It was the last of the feudal kingdoms.

Environmentalists are now using high and low tech to see what was previously unseeable. Using small, efficient and inexpensive, broadcast-quality camcorders, they have become video vigilantes. They record, from a distance, on video tape what they believe are excesses of the forest companies. Duplicate videos are sent to TV stations, government agencies and politicians of all parties, and the environmentalists sit back until the new "critical mass" changes beliefs and political control. This in turn enforces new controls that end forever the former lifestyle of the corporation. Such a corporation, only capable of running the old way, may not be capable of operating under the new conditions. Death comes on swift wings. An airplane, a company like Macmillan Bloedel, or a government and country, such as the U.S.S.R., all die quickly, once their engines fail.

 

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