LATEST: THE PETER PAN SYNDROME 

Social changes are starting to rock the world in a manner never possible in previous times. What men, as a group are doing affects women and visa versa. Trends noticeable in North America and Europe are now filtering into segments of the developing world where the impossible, even there, is occurring with unusual rapidity.

One in seven North American males is still living with his parents -and he is 27 years of age or older! Females who once lived at home until they got married are now leaving home but are getting married much later in life. So they are postponing having babies and are having fewer than in generations past. This is going to affect the market value of our homes. On top of this shrinkage in the first-home buyer market in North America and Europe, the shrinking birthrate (Quebec once one of the highest in the world, but now has of the lowest) means far fewer new homes are required.

Since new construction costs are usually higher than buying an old home, that means that young couples who want to get married or live together, look first for a small old home. In many cases, they find the market price of even that type of accommodation too highly priced and move in with one of their parents. That's another blow to the housing market. This affects not only new home construction but also takes the pressure off present old market housing and when it happens often enough the market drops.

Now that thousands are being laid off from their jobs, as North America loses its competitiveness in a global market where competition comes from the other 5,000,000,000 world citizens, what was taken as a given -- a single family home for everyone -becomes an impossible dream. The loss of that dream, the reduction in new families, the decreasing in birthrate all change the "proven knowledge" that house prices always rise. Look at it as people looked at the world 800 years ago. They thought it was flat then. Remember?

Real estate no longer follows the old rules. The rules for that game have gone out the window, and the game itself has changed. It may eventually get worse. People with investment, royalty incomes or substantial pensions are looking at their taxes and see that what they had worked a life time to enjoy is now vanishing under the heavy tax burden. Many are moving along with their money to a climate, that treats them less harshly, both economically and weatherwise. This too reduces demand -- for everything. When such people move to Spain, Mexico, or Costa Rico, their house appears on the market, and eventually sells. That deletes one more house and everything a house can hold from new construction plans that never will be built. When more people move out of an area than move in, residential real estate prices drop. Witness Quebec which has lost 750,000 residents (mostly anglais) or Saskatchewan, where you can now buy a town for the price of a standard West Vancouver home. The isolation, loneliness and long, bitterly cold winters that some people were once willing to tolerate, aren't saleable today.

Many modern young women are not accepting the pressure to marry, nor play housewife and stay in the kitchen even when their husbands want them too -- another rapidly vanishing breed.

Remember when such things as house prices or business expansions peak, any relatively small decrease can have vast implications. The new science of chaos theory and fractal mathematics suggests that even the beating of a butterfly's wings in Malyasia today can cause a tornado next week in Kansas. It's known as the "butterfly factor". Imagine how any of the preceeding factors can occur and multiply, in a reverse fashion, thereby creating a real low buying pressure area for everything.

Another area-specific phenomenon is occurring at various locations near the Canada/U.S. border. The same home that sells in Vancouver for $250,000 Canadian sells in Blaine/Bellingham area for half the price, and a third of the tax rate. When all these changes collect in one swirling vortex anything can happen. Prepare for abrupt change. When you are prepared, what may appear threatening to the unprepared, may be a wonderful opportunity. What else looks "flat" to you?

* * *

< previous | chapter index | next >
back to Main Chapter Listing
back to Home Page