THE NEW ECONOMIC TIGERS
***********************
Time is compressing. What used to take five years to happen now
often occurs in one. Take the "four tigers" of the near west.
By next year these four tigers (or dragons) -- South Korea,
Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong -- will be exporting more manufactured products than Japan! Combined with Japan they will control
one-quarter of the world's commerce -- all accomplished in roughly
seven years. Also emerging from the den are the tiger cubs of
Thailand, Malaysia, China and India (The European Community (EC) with
19.8 and U.S. 12.8 percent respectively are the other main world
players).
Consider this possibility: China and India combined have a population pushing two billion people, 40 percent of the world's total.
If they reached the productivity of Turkey and were able to each
produce a hundred dollars worth of manufactured products for export,
total export figures would almost equal Japan's.
With these facts, not dreams, facing North America what are we to
do?
Well first of all don't panic. But we do have to realize that we
haven't been too smart during the past decade. Our governments can't
keep running up record financial deficits and paying a third of our
taxes out in interest payments (In this regard Canada is the worst in
the industrialized world, with the highest per capita national debt).
Meanwhile the 'tigers' put their savings from relatively insignificant tax burdens into R&D (Canada ranks last among the 25 leading
developed countriers in R&D), new products, new age education and cohesive marketing. And, we have to start making more moves that make
money. Decisions made over self-righteous beliefs don't mean much
when you are broke.
However, it is quite likely that governments, always behind in
fast-moving times, will be able to move fast enough to survive in
their present form. This is bound to cause the social turbulence so
noticeable today. Governments are unable to do the things they were
originally set up to handle. Look at: protection of citizens against
terrorism, control of illegal immigrants, and safeguarding of jobs,
currency or environment. Crisis control has created its own
permanent bureaucracy.
So what to do? Prepare for what will appear to be chaos. But the
picture really is brighter than it looks through Industrial Age eyes.
For chaos is a time of great creativity and opportunity. As the
bricks of the past become unstuck and crumble therein lies the chance
to rebuild things in a new and better way.
Before the move from the Agricultural Age to the Industrial Age,
people almost everywhere depended primarily on farming to earn a
living. Even in North America that was 98 percent of the population.
Yet, during the past century most countries managed to slide into the
industrial age of manufactured production without fatal encounters.
When the transition was completed, the wealth of the world had
increased thirty times. Now even the poorest live longer, starve
less, enjoy more.
It shall happen again, although this time the transition period
won't be so long. Much of the turbulence of river rapids is caused
by the speed of change of that water flowing from a more tranquil
river section to a narrower channel -- similar to the to experience
of moving from one era into yet another. The ride can be threatening
or exhilarating, depending on your view of change.
In the light of current world economics, look not through the lens
of a negative perception of fear but rather through a more positive
perception of opportunity. It's my belief that when the turbulence
of transition finally settles down in the Communications Age, the
wealth of the planet may have increased another 100 times. There are
several reasons why: There are now five billion people out there.
Many are increasing their income levels dramatically. We can all do
much more now with less.
What can we do or provide that the rest of the world just has to
have? Success, not just survival is just an idea away.
* * *
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