Lessons From The Future

 

 

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Volume VIII
Lessons From The Future

LET ME TELL YOU ABOUT "BIG" 

Since the end of World War II we have been hearing about the activities of large companies. Like AT&T (American Telephone & Telegraph), IBM (International Business Machines) and GM (General Motors). All at one time or another, among the largest companies in the world. But that was a couple of years ago. The scene has changed. Now let me tell you about BIG!

This company is the largest employer in Japan. Its stock, listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, is valued current˙˙˙˙˙˙˙˙ly at US$260 Billion rs! That makes it, financially, the largest company in the world.

How much is $260 billion? This one organization is worth double that of AT&T, IBM and General Motors COMBINED Since time began in the communications world, NTT (Nippon Telephone & Telegraph) has been a government monopoly. The privatized shares, originally offered early last year at nearly US$9,000 each, quickly doubled in price. They are now selling at US$16,600. That's an incredible price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 147! (North American 'rule of thumb' for P/E ratios is between 12 and 15) Last year's net income for NTT: US$2.1 billion. A 39 percent increase over 1987.

Today NTT has an unusual goal. They want to create a network for products that don't exist: Like color fax machines, telephones so small that they could be implanted in subscribers, who would keep the same number for life and could travel anywhere; remotely programmable robots or wall sensors that recognize individually who is in your home; "mindlink" thought sensors that respond to thoughts or electronic encyclopedias containing the knowledge of the world, available at the touch of a button. It will all be coordinated through their version of ISDN (Intergrated Systems Digital Network), the soon-to-be-reality "electronic highway" to everywhere.

How long to wire Japan? This year for a few major cities. They predict one million subscribers for this now exotic service within seven years. Knowing the Japanese, I predict that this will turn out to be an ultra-conservative estimate. One Japanese government observer says they will have 50 percent of all households and businesses ON FIBRE by the Year 2000.

How can they do this? By taking a very smart gamble. Even though this will be a more expensive technology initially, they are offering it at the same price as the old service! Because of the systems greater capacity and ultra-fast speed, large data users should be able to drastically lower their phone bills. Some savings will be passed to others, who using the services of these resellers. This will enable information and knowledge to spread more quickly, at a lower price, improving both the country's already high literacy level (99 percent) and now their rate of electronic literacy. Net result: an even greater lead for Japan into the 21st century.

Next year all of Japan's major cities will be tied into this system. Look for Japan to be the world experts in this field by the time most of the world learns what is happening. _____________________________________________________________________

JOKE: WHERE DOES A GORILLA SLEEP? ANSWER: A GORILLA SLEEPS WHERE HE WANTS TO.

MEET THE COMMUNICATION INDUSTRY'S LARGEST GORILLA.

AT&T NTT

MARKET VALUE $ 29.0 BILLION $ 260.0 BILLION REVENUES $ 33.6 BILLION $ 45.3 BILLION PROFITS $ 02.04 BILLION $ 2.14 BILLION ASSETS $ 38.4 BILLION $ 92.0 BILLION CAPITAL SPENDING $ 04.7 BILLION $ 14.4 BILLION _____________________________________________________________________

 

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